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TREB's Market Watch for September 2018

Thursday, September 6, 2018   /   by Brian Khatambakhsh

TREB's Market Watch for September 2018


TREB RELEASES MONTHLY RESALE HOUSING FIGURES AS REPORTED BY GTA REALTORS®




TORONTO, September 6, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced sales and price increases on a year-over-year basis in August.  Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,839 sales through TREB's MLS® System in August 2018 – an 8.5 per cent increase compared to August 2017.


Both the average selling price, at $765,270, and the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark for August 2018 were up compared to the same month in 2017, by 4.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively.  The average selling price increased by more than the MLS® HPI Composite due, at least in part, to a change in the mix of sales compared to last year.  Detached home sales were up by double digits on a year-over-year percentage basis – substantially more than many other less-expensive home types.


"It is encouraging to see a continued resurgence in the demand for ownership housing.  Many home buyers who had initially moved to the sidelines due to the Ontario Fair Housing Plan and new mortgage lending guidelines have renewed their search for a home and are getting deals done much more so than last year.  In a region where the economy remains strong and the population continues to grow, ownership housing remains a solid long-term investment," said Mr. Bhaura.


Month-over-month sales and price growth also continued in August.  On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, August 2018 sales were up by two per cent compared to July 2018.  The seasonally adjusted August 2018 average selling price was down slightly by 0.2 per cent compared to July 2018, following strong monthly increases in May, June and July.


"Market conditions in the summer of 2018, including this past August, were tighter than what was experienced in the summer of 2017.  In August, the annual rate of sales growth outpaced the annual rate of new listings growth.  We only have slightly more than two-and-a-half months of inventory in the TREB market area as a whole and less than two months of inventory in the City of Toronto.  This means that despite the fact the sales remain off the record highs from 2016 and 2017, many GTA neighbourhoods continue to suffer from a lack of inventory.  This could present a problem if demand continues to accelerate over the next year, which is expected," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.


TREB Launches New Website Highlighting Municipal Election Issues Related to Housing


With municipal elections just over six weeks away, TREB is highlighting key housing issues for the public to consider when voting and is providing an opportunity for voters to communicate about these issues with election candidates through a new web site: UnLockMyHousingOptions.ca.


"One of the key issues facing home buyers and renters in the GTA is inadequate housing supply and choice, and one of the main reasons for this is municipal policy that unnecessarily locks up housing options.  Whether it is approval delays, inflexible and outdated zoning rules, or market distorting taxes like Toronto's Land Transfer Tax, current municipal policies are a big part of the reason why there is not enough gentle density housing, like semis, row homes, and multiplexes, in the GTA. This 'missing middle' option is critical for a healthy real estate market and we are encouraging home buyers and renters to let municipal election candidates know their views through our new election campaign web site: UnLockMyHousingOptions.ca," said Mr. Bhaura.


 


 




















































Summary of TREB MLS®  Sales and Average Price August 1 - 31, 2018



2018



2017



Sales



Average Price



New Listings



Sales



Average Price



New Listings



City of Toronto ("416")



2,441



785,223



3,752



2,462



724,672



3,592



Rest of GTA ("905")



4,398



754,195



8,414



3,844



735,002



7,889



GTA



6,839



765,270



12,166



6,306



730,969



11,481



 








































































































TREB MLS® Sales & Average Price  By Home Type August 1 - 31, 2018



Sales



Average Price



416



905



Total



416



905



Total



Detached



619



2,382



3,001



1,244,275



907,780



977,187



Yr./Yr. % Change



12.3%



19.2%



17.7%



4.9%



0.3%



1.2%



Semi-Detached



191



386



577



891,208



667,979



741,873



Yr./Yr. % Change



6.1%



-4.2%



-1.0%



-0.5%



5.1%



3.6%



Townhouse



225



918



1,143



683,160



610,088



624,472



Yr./Yr. % Change



-4.7%



8.5%



5.6%



-0.1%



4.6%



3.2%



Condo Apartment



1,388



612



2,000



585,355



440,748



541,106



Yr./Yr. % Change



-5.6%



18.6%



0.7%



8.3%



5.9%



6.4%



 


 


 




























































































August 2018 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI



 



Composite (All Types)



Single-Family Detached



Single-Family Attached



Townhouse



Apartment



TREB Total



1.45%



-1.94%



0.08%



0.83%



9.94%



Halton Region



2.01%



0.12%



3.63%



4.07%



6.91%



Peel Region



2.23%



0.80%



1.79%



0.53%



8.49%



City of Toronto



6.07%



0.04%



2.63%



2.09%



11.60%



York Region



-6.52%



-7.88%



-7.37%



-4.66%



3.01%



Durham Region



-1.17%



-1.49%



0.25%



-3.52%



1.96%



Orangeville



5.22%



5.03%



4.93%



-



-



South Simcoe County1



-1.29%



-1.14%



-0.91%



-



-



Source: Toronto Real Estate Board



1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth



 


 






















































Annual Summary of TREB MLS® Sales and Average Price Year-to-Date 2018



Year-to-Date



2018



2017



Sales



Average Price



New Listings



Sales



Average Price



New Listings



City of Toronto ("416")



20,390



831,004



35,524



24,877



849,510



41,949



Rest of GTA ("905")



33,244



758,100



75,107



41,782



841,940



84,643



GTA



53,634



785,816



110,631



66,659



844,765



126,592



 








































































































Annual TREB MLS® Sales & Average Price  By Home Type



Sales



Average Price



416



905



Total



416



905



Total



Detached



5,335



17,880



23,215



1,332,712



917,387



1,012,832



Yr./Yr. % Change



-27.8%



-30.5%



-29.9%



-8.7%



-10.6%



-9.8%



Semi-Detached



1,661



3,179



4,840



993,626



658,160



773,286



Yr./Yr. % Change



-23.9%



-26.6%



-25.7%



-2.0%



-3.8%



-2.7%



Townhouse



1,957



6,869



8,826



739,920



605,768



635,514



Yr./Yr. % Change



-21.8%



-20.0%



-20.4%



2.7%



-3.8%



-2.3%



Condo Apartment



11,308



4,591



15,899



588,761



447,957



548,103



Yr./Yr. % Change



-25.0%



-23.6%



-24.6%



8.1%



4.6%



7.1%



 

























































































































Seasonally Adjusted TREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1



 



Sales



Month-over-Month % Chg.



Average Price



Month-over-Month % Chg.



August '17



6,474



8.3%



$773,362



-0.3%



September '17



6,622



2.3%



$782,414



1.2%



October '17



6,792



2.6%



$786,238



0.5%



November '17



7,705



13.4%



$777,036



-1.2%



December '17



8,589



11.5%



$783,611



0.8%



January '18



6,551



-23.7%



$769,509



-1.8%



February '18



6,007



-8.3%



$746,897



-2.9%



March '18



5,955



-0.9%



$752,402



0.7%



April '18



5,865



-1.5%



$752,203



0.0%



May '18



5,646



-3.7%



$762,728



1.4%



June '18



6,568



16.3%



$786,914



3.2%



July '18



6,951



5.8%



$808,650



2.8%



August '18



7,093



2.0%



$807,128



-0.2%



Source: Toronto Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment



1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.